How did Harper miscalculate so badly?

Stephen Harper is known as an accomplished political strategist, his ability so great as to overcome an almost total lack of personal charisma and make of him the most formidable opponent on the Canadian political scene. I will confess to being highly amused at the way he ran circles around the opposition parties in his first mandate, taking maximum advantage of their aversion to a new election. The improbable knots they had to tie themselves into to avoid triggering election calls rivalled anything a Chinese circus can display. Petty of me, I know, but one has to admire talent when one sees it.

I had my thoughts on why his normal perspicacity had abandoned him, and then I stumbled across this article from the Globe and Mail which articulated very nicely what I had suspected.

It is one of the habits of truly great leaders to surround themselves with people who compensate for their own weaknesses. Harper might be forgiven for not recognizing his, because they have been very useful to him, particularly his ruthlessness and tendency to go for the jugular of his political foes. He over-reached a time or two in his first federal campaign, and learned to moderate the tendency a bit. But it remains a besetting sin for the Prime Minister, and one which he hasn't sufficiently guarded against.

What he desperately needs is a powerful advisor who lacks that trait, who is capable of respecting the opponent and who does not mistake political bluster and posturing for reality. And this, he does not have. Instead, he has Guy Giorno.

Caught in a political echo chamber, he made the very dangerous mistake of underestimating the opposition, calculating that they would run away from a game of chicken. Not. This is what Michael Valpy and Daniel Leblanc said in their analysis:

... Mr. Harper's determination to destroy the Liberals borders on the pathological.

It has become a blind spot in his judgment, with no one in his office to put the brakes on his impulses.

His chief of staff, Guy Giorno – once chief of staff to Ontario Progressive Conservative premier Mike Harris and one of the icy architects of Mr. Harris's Common Sense Revolution – is not the ying to Mr. Harper's yang. Rather they are two yangs together.

Mr. Lyle recalled Friday the story told of Clifford Scotton, who was a key aide to Manitoba NDP premier Howard Pawley. Mr. Scotton's job was to say four words to Mr. Pawley whenever the need arose: “I think not, Howard.”

Mr. Giorno is not the Prime Minister's Clifford Scotton, said Mr. Lyle.

It sounds like Harper's advisors are politically inbred, with all the inherent weakness that implies. It's time for some fresh blood.

Technorati tags: Stephen Harper, Guy Giorno

The Canadian crisis for Americans

Seeing as so many of my readers are Americans, I thought you'd appreciate this little article on our defused crisis from Neil Macdonald. Macdonald normally gets on my nerves, as his anti-Americanism is frequently painfully obvious. (Which made him the logical choice for the Washington correspondent, right?) He didn't do too badly here though, and there's enough humour to make it go down rather nicely. It's a couple of days old, so it doesn't take into account the actual decision made by the Governor General.

If anybody's interested, I might do a post someday on where that anti-American attitude comes from. I've never been a fan of bigotry of any sort, but sometimes you have to acknowledge the roots of an attitude, if you're going to understand it.

Michaëlle Jean proves her worth

I'm so glad there was an adult in the house who sent the kids to their rooms to cool off. I sincerely hope that Prime Minister Harper has learned a valuable lesson on playing nicely with others, and that the other parties have time to see that manufacturing a crisis out of what is merely an unpleasant situation, at least here in Canada, does not win them points for audacity, but rather disdain for their presumption. At least that's the way the early polls are tilting. It's certainly the way I feel.

I'm not sure that it was necessary to suspend Parliament all the way till January 26th, but at least we are guaranteed not to have election lawn signs competing with Christmas lights this year.

Will the Liberals be able to hold their own party together until then, let alone their coalition? Early signs there are not encouraging for them. It only took a couple of hours after Parliament was suspended before Liberal MPs began breaking ranks. Scott Simms and Keith Martin are two other MPs questioning the wisdom of pursuing the coalition's agenda.

May cooler heads prevail. While I think that Stéphane Dion gets some unfair press too, it should be painfully clear that his leadership abilities just aren't up to snuff. This is not the hand I would want to see on the tiller right now.

And, if anybody from the Conservative party is listening, please cut the hyper-partisan swagger. That plays well only to hard-core supporters. The rest of us are sick to death of chest-thumping and spin doctors and arrogance. You'd be much more attractive without it.


Technorati tags: Crisis in Canada

Surrealism in Ottawa

I haven't commented on the shenanigans in Ottawa yet, because they struck me as so surreal that I couldn't believe it was anything more than hot air. I did comment on the Conservatives' ill-advised and quickly withdrawn proposal to cut public funding of political parties, but the possibility of changing governments mere weeks after an election seemed too preposterous to be real. I had trouble processing it. Surely this was just political posturing.

Well, now I've processed it. Trying to explain it to American friends has been challenging. A legal coup, stable instability, what do you call it? I'm having trouble finding any good guys in this story. They're all nuts.

First of all, I think the Liberals and the NDP are just plain wrong. The cautious, stay-the-course economic strategy of the Conservatives may not have been sexy, but given our position of relative economic strength, a very wise one. It's like steering on ice, the last thing you do is jerk the steering wheel around. Bringing down the government over this issue is insane, and could cost Canada dearly. (In passing, why do parties criticize each other most loudly about the things they're doing right? It makes me despair of ever seeing rationality in politics.) (OK, so I'm not that naive. I gave up on that years ago. But I keep trying anyway.)

Of course, it will likely backfire on the coalition in the long term if they actually take power. They will get blamed for the mess, and they will probably deserve some of that blame, although by no means all. I doubt this has occurred to them.

And it is really not clear to me just who the prime minister will be. Stephane Dion is a lame duck. Is he still planning on stepping down as Liberal leader, or will they relent in their desire to have his head on a platter after he engineers a successful power grab despite their worst showing at the polls ever?

It is also rather dishonest, given the Liberals' repeated election promises not to form a coalition with the NDP. I suspect it might take me more elections than I had foreseen before I'll be able to stomach voting Liberal again.

On the other hand, the Conservatives' stance of offended virginity is a bit much. And trying to turn this into a Canadian unity issue is disingenuous. The Bloc Quebecois is very pragmatic about all this and much too comfortable in Ottawa to seriously want separation. They'll support the coalition the same way they often supported the Conservatives, with no more negative impact on national unity. Trying to demonize them to score political points is arguably much more damaging.

And Ed Schreyer is unfortunately right. What the coalition is proposing is entirely legal and within the rules. While Jean may grant the Conservatives a brief prorogation of Parliament, ultimately the other parties are fully within their rights to bring down the government and propose themselves as an alternative and she should give them the chance to try. They are playing by the rules, much as it galls me to admit it. I think it's political insanity, and rather reprehensible, but they have the right to do it.

You know, I'd been telling people that I couldn't vote Liberal for a while because they had dug themselves such a deep hole that it would take a term or two or three before the Conservatives had dug themselves deeper. Well, the Conservatives were digging, all right, but now the Liberals have pulled out a shovel of honking big proportions. The only thing that could possibly redeem them is if they shock me with astonishingly adept governance. I'm not holding my breath.

And when I'm finished being really, really mad at the Liberals and the NDP I'm going to be furious with the Conservatives for bringing this on themselves with their partisan arrogance.


Technorati tags: Stephen Harper, Stephane Dion

Shame on Second Cup

It took a Facebook group advocating a boycott and an investigative report by CBC reporter Simon Gardner to get the head office of Second Cup to take employee complaints against a franchise owner seriously.

As a parent of a former employee, I know that the complaints are more than justified. The owner of the Bayshore Second Cup consistently underpaid employees, among other transgressions. No action was taken by Head Office until the whole situation hit the media. It is disheartening that employees are unable to get justice on their own merits, but at least something is finally being done.

It also mystifies me that business owners so frequently do not understand that treating employees - and customers and suppliers - honestly and considerately is good business. I know that this particular Second Cup lost a lot of business because of customer dissatisfaction. Only a prime location makes it a profitable venture. A survey taken of major Canadian businesses a number of years ago came to the conclusion that the most consistent factor for success was treating employees well. Happy employees are a fantastic asset to a business, something that this Second Cup owner completely fails to understand. Unfortunately the company itself has not been successful in creating an atmosphere where employees believe they have a viable recourse. It really is a shame, because on the whole, it's a decent coffee shop.


Technorati tags: Second Cup

Ah victory

There is the normal partisan bluster, but the Conservatives are backing down. Public funding of the parties will continue.

In passing, somebody should put a muzzle on Pierre Poilievre. Pugnacious spin doctors probably come out somewhere below used car salesmen in the level of public respect they inspire. He is reputed to be a hard-working representative for his riding, and is pleasant enough in real life, but seems to believe that public obnoxiousness is a positive political trait. It isn't.


Technorati tags: Party funding, Pierre Poilievre

Cynical political opportunism?

I'm not naive. I know that politicians can get petty. I know political parties can get petty. My persistent case of chronic idealism makes me keep thinking that every now and again politicians can surprise me and act for the common good, or in defense of principles, instead of merely jockeying for political advantage.

So I would really like it if the Conservatives backed away from their current fit of pettiness. The proposed cutting of public subsidies to political parties based on their share of the popular vote looks more like an attempt to kick the Liberal party while it's down than an attempt to save money.

Heaven knows I have been no fan of the Liberals in recent years, and I am still of the opinion that a few more years in the political wilderness would do them a world of good. They'd had a free ride into government for too many years and they stank to high heaven and it's going to take a while longer before the lingering stench has been washed away. But they did do a couple of really praiseworthy things while they were in government that strengthened popular democracy in this country. Drastically reducing the permissible size of political donations was one of them; its corollary of funding parties from the public purse was another. Both worked against their own partisan advantage, which is why it amazes me they ever did it at all, and I applaud them for it.

Now I would like to applaud the Conservatives for resisting the temptation to dismantle this excellent system. Why do I think it is excellent? Firstly, because it helps diminish the political power of deep pockets. Secondly, because it increases the financial viability of small parties. It might seem strange that I care about this, seeing as I almost never vote for them. But they have a very important contribution to make to political discourse, sometimes popularizing issues enough that the more powerful parties take notice. That alone would be sufficient cause. But they also help prevent a two-party system. The last few years of observing the American system have been enough to convince me that a two-party system breeds social polarization and blind partisanship. I don't want us to fall into the same cesspool.

Which is why I also fervently hope the Liberals will rise again, hopefully with a little less arrogance and a few more principles. A centrist party, flanked by viable opponents on each side seems to me to be a good recipe for moderation and stability. (OK, the NDP doesn't quite rank as viable, unfortunately, seeing as it tends to make the Liberals tilt more to the left to compensate for their weakness.) So please, let's not kick them too hard while they're down, however much they deserve to be down there.


Technorati tags: Canadian politics

Summer Breeze

My father-in-law's car radio is permanently set to a Golden Oldies station. I'm old enough that the songs often date from my childhood and teens. Most of the time, I cringe in embarrassment. I can't believe we listened to that!

But not today. This was the first big hit from Seals and Croft, a beautiful ode to everyday life, and part of the soundtrack of my teens.



ETA: Can you think of any other songs that celebrate contentment so beautifully? Extra points for anything post-70s.


Technorati tags: Seals and Crofts, Summer Breeze

Sorry I've been AWOL. That old chronic fatigue thing decided to raise its ugly head and I've needed all my meager energy just to make sure the bills get paid and that there's food in the house. Anything else is extra.

Along with the writing I haven't been doing, and discovering that my crit group found my opening chapter very confusing (nothing like a good crit group to prevent you from making a fool of yourself), I have also been keeping a bit of an eye on the world, which hasn't helped much in lifting my spirits.

Zimbabwe continues to suffer in its Mugabe-created hell. When I think of the hope that they must have felt when he first came to power, my heart aches for them.

I continue to try to ignore what's going on in Russia, as the country cheerfully and willingly marches back to a totalitarian, belligerent dictatorship. It makes you wish Fukuyama had been right, although I never believed for a single second that he was. Equilibrium is something that humanity never lives in, just a point we pass through on our pendulum swings.

How long before somebody decides enough is enough and takes over Somalia?

On a lighter note, expose Americans to Canadian football long enough, and they will never go back...

But Haddox, and about a half-dozen of her Baltimore buddies, couldn't let go of their passion for high-scoring, wide-open Canadian football and have continued to get their fix by making Grey Cups trips an annual ritual.

What's on your mind lately?

Poor Barack

Seriously, congratulations and all, Mr. Obama, but what a position to be in.

The victory was so complete, hopes are so high, the expectations are positively staggering. There is nowhere to go but down.

A couple of quick samples:

From the Associated Press:

Naming the staggering list of problems he inherits — two wars and "the worst financial crisis in a century," among them — Obama sought to restrain the soaring expectations of his supporters.

"We may not get there in one year or even in one term," he said. "But, America, I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you, we as a people will get there."

A tide of international goodwill came Obama's way on Wednesday morning, even as developments made clear how heavy a weight will soon be on his shoulders.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev issued a congratulatory telegram saying there is "solid positive potential" for the election to improve strained relations between Washington and Moscow, if Obama engages in constructive dialogue.

Yet he appeared to be deliberately provocative hours after the election with sharp criticism of the U.S. and his announcement that Russia will deploy missiles near NATO member Poland in response to U.S. missile defense plans.

Reaction in Africa:

Many Africans fervently hope his victory will mean more U.S. support for local development and an improvement in living conditions for the majority on the world's poorest continent.

"We trust that you will also make it the mission of your presidency to combat the scourge of poverty and disease everywhere," former South African President Nelson Mandela said.

South African Nobel Peace laureate Desmond Tutu likened Obama's victory to his country's triumph over apartheid and Nigeria's President Umaru Yar'Adua said the result had "finally broken the greatest barrier of prejudice in human history."

Analysts have cautioned, however, that Obama may have little scope to bring tangible benefits to Africa, and that he does not have a strong track record of interest in the continent.

More international reaction:

Financial markets in Asia were higher Wednesday as traders were hopeful that Obama could successfully tackle the global economic crisis. But in Europe and later on Wall Street the main markets were down by at least 1 percent.

...

In an open letter to Obama, French President Nicolas Sarkozy offered "my warmest congratulations, and through me, those of the entire French people."

He said Obama's election raised in France, in Europe and around the world "an immense hope" and that the American people "had expressed with force their faith in progress and the future."

One CNN reader Toby Nevin wrote on a blog: "I stayed up through the night to watch from Paris. What a wonderful moment. It seems that the tide has turned from division and fear towards hope, responsibility and unity.

"Obama is a great leader for a United States of America that deserves him as a guide through these troubled times. Let us all remember our engagement to this spirit of positive change!"

There are, of course, many more moderate responses, noting the magnitude of the challenges Obama faces. And if he manages to rise to just some of the expectations, America will be well off.

And for the election-weary, the BBC offers this Not-the-election quiz. I managed not to be a total loser. Bet you can't do much better.


Technorati tags: Barack Obama